Change is on the Way

The ridge that has gave way to this extremely nice weather is starting to break down and this will result in a change in conditions for SE Saskatchewan. Models have been indicating this for a while now and it appears to be true by looking at this mornings analysis. With this change we can expect windy conditions, and thunderstorms. Friday, a low forms in the wake of the mountains and works its way through central Saskatchewan.

Today, Wednesday July 03 - Expect hot and humid conditions with temperatures near 30 degrees (feels hotter with the humidity) with strong winds from the SW at 35km/hr gusting to 50km/hr. Later on this evening a cold front is making its way through the region which potentially could potentially give rise to severe thunderstorms later today. Expect a severe thunderstorm watch later on this jafternoon. Plenty of instability exists in the region which will support large hail, and gusty winds. Hot and humid conditions will support severe storm development but a strong lid exists through the region which will inhibit the development of thunderstorms until later this evening if at all. SO be sky aware and listen for watches and warnings especially if you are travelling in the evening hours.

Thursday July 04 - Expect a quieter day than wednesday, with breezy conditions in the morning following the passage of the cold front. Winds will be from the NW at 25km/hr in the morning then calming down to light and variable in the afternoon hours with a daytime high near 26 with mainly sunny conditions, humidity will also be less of a factor. Also expect increased cloudiness in the evening hours as the new low develops in the lee of the Rockies.

Friday July 05 - This is where things will be getting interesting. Severe thunderstorms are definitely a strong possibility in the Regina area, along the Trans-Canada and near Weyburn. These types of thunderstorms that will form in these environments are capable of large hail, damaging winds and giving the shear with this system and instability, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out AT this moment. I am monitoring this system very closely and will keep you updated with a forecast tomorrow night specifically for this event on Friday, which potentially could be a major event giving the current outlook. Otherwise expect hot an humid conditions on Friday with daytime highs near 27 degrees with south-south east winds at 25km/hr with partly cloudy conditions especially in the morning hours.

The Heat Continues!

Nice weather will persist throughout the coming week as the blocking pattern stays stationary over western North America. Southern Saskatchewan will see very nice conditions over the next week into next weekend where it seems a disturbance will be making its way through that may bring temporary changes for a day or two next weekend. The timing of this short wave trough (the disturbance circled in red) and the strength is still uncertain but long range models have been clueing into a break down of the ridge over western Canada for the past couple days. So keep in mind this in mind that next weekend there may be a change in the current conditions that you will experience this week! I will monitor this trend and give more information on it in later posts. 

Disturbance forecasted to enter into next weekend. Timing is still uncertain

Zig zag line represents the Upper level ridge.

Forecast for SE Saskatchewan

For today: Expect mainly sunny conditions, a few clouds may begin to appear later on in the day from intense surface heating. Winds will be form the SE at 20km/hr gusting to 30km/hr and expect temperatures to climb to around 27 degrees and a low of 13. 

Tomorrow July 01, 2013 - Expect a high near 30 degrees with light and variable winds in the afternoon  and mainly sunny conditions as the ridge is centred over top of the region! Perfect boating and golfing weather or any outdoor activity for that matter! evening low will be quite comfortable near 15.

Tuesday July 02, 2013 - Once again hot and sunny weather with highs in the low 30's and light winds from the south/south west at 20-25km/hr and an overnight low of 15!

Enjoy the rest of your long weekend! 

Beautiful Weekend Ahead!

Looks to be a beautiful long weekend on tap for south eastern SK as ridge starts to build over the western half of North America. As the ridge builds it is setting up what looks to be a longer term blocking pattern which may last well into next week. From this we can expect high surface temperatures in the mid to upper 20's and breaking 30 is not out of the question especially if the surface high passes over the region. We can also expect calm winds this weekend as no major gradients are setting up while the ridge of high pressure is in place over southern and south eastern Saskatchewan. We can expect a few rounds of intermittent showers across the region but will be short in duration and minor in intensity.

This type of flow pattern is known as an omega block, where the flow orientates itself in such a manner that it looks like the greek letter omega. These types of patterns are known for their persistent weather patterns because of the strength and the slow moving nature of the pattern. It is also not uncommon for subtle waves to develop in the flow that will locally enhance lift in the region and spark up some showers or thunderstorms, which we will see, that this does occur this weekend.

As far as precipitation goes for south eastern Saskatchewan a few showers or thunderstorms are not out of the question. On Saturday, a thermal low starts to develop over west central Saskatchewan and in response the surface winds will become south easterly around 20-25km/hr and the thermal low will make its way east sparking off a few rounds of convection in the evening hours and over night. This nocturnal convection may impact south eastern Saskatchewan but will mainly be non severe and won't last over long and currently as sits, the most heavy part of convection will occur early sunday morning and fizzle out through the morning hours leaving behind some scattered high level cloud. 

Convective precipitation for 12z (6am)  Sunday June 30, 2013

Sunday, the surface high will make its way into the interlake region of Manitoba setting up southerly flow through south eastern Saskatchewan. By this time a surface low is developing in the western U.S.A and in response a convergent line is setting up through western Saskatchewan. Convection may be a possibility along this convergent line but uncertainty still exists as far as the timing and amount of forcing along this line of convergence will exhibit. The other concern is that the main ridge still lies above this feature, inhibiting convection to develop. 

Other than a few hiccups in the atmosphere, this weekend will be a very nice long weekend in south eastern Saskatchewan. Enjoy!!

Kyle